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By K. Winkler, W. Murphy

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Note that a project manager has no control over external conditions, risks, or restrictions. Examples of factors that cannot be controlled are (1) changes of the natural project site environment; (2) serious repercussions due to changes of government policy, planning, development strategies, and other major impacts; and (3) management problems that isolate the project inputs and outputs. Project assumptions are important factors and should be based on analysis of pre-project conditions, input and output targets, macro objectives, and levels of uncertainties.

Indicator 2 Indicator 3 ...... Sequence-based multilevel evaluation index system. System Goal Index 1 ...... 4 Index 2 Index 3 ...... Nonsequential multilevel evaluation index system. subindicators are not based on subindices at an adjacent level and cannot be cannot be classified by sequence relationships. 4. Nonsequential multilevel evaluation systems do not follow the independence principle. 2 Statistical Analysis of Indicator Information An index system may be based on one of two methods: (1) subjective assessment and comparison of expert judgments; and (2) statistical analysis of data.

Most assessments require intervals of 3 to 6 weeks. Internet technology facilitates communications and intervals of 1 to 3 weeks are now common. Intervals between founds should be based on the complexity of the issue and the experts’ interest. The principles of the Delphi method are based on a long history of its use. They may not be followed strictly in some situations and this may affect the reliability of the results. However, by researching and abiding by these principles, organizers can make fewer mistakes and obtain effective evaluations.

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